Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Inland Empire San Gabriel Valley Commercial Real Estate- State of Market

Multi-Family Panel

Kevin Breve-Regional Marcus & Millichap Regional Manager
Alexander Garcia Jr Marcus Millichap SVP
Robert Hallock-  SVP- Acquistions Bridge Investments LLC
Mark Grace- VP Capital Markets- Walker & Dunlap

10,000 a day turning 21 or to a baby Boomer.
Inland Empire- Top 10 in forecasted demand in US. Highest Growth opportunities- (multi-family)
Buy in IE  for 5% Cap Rate or better.. 9 (Favorable)
Huge growth in IE, with apartment communities with all the amenities. (exercise, pools, halls and more. Low maintenance)
Velocity now vs Past cycles- Still quite a bit of opportunity to grow. Current numbers in markets are strong!
Thinking to loan opportunities and risks East of the 15 freeway years ago, now the possibilities seems wide open for growth!
IE Ranked in top 10 in Job Growth!
Baby boomers top prospects moving to Multi-Family!
Rents are about $100 more per month and Interest Rates are significantly lower.. Apartments are profitable.
Growth Opportunities are great and margins are in the IE. It will continue to drive growth in!

Panelist believes growth is on the horizon for 3-5 years..

Greg Devereaux- SB County County Administrative Officer

Growth Opportunities and Commitments
Prado Dam Area- Large Plans and investments
Foothill Developments- Rancho/ Upland Communities
Chino Airport Growth and Opportunities.
Huge Growth and Commitment to Downtown San Bernardino

Joseph Brady- Branco Companies

Mining drives big jobs, and opportunity and mining is a huge driver in the High Desert. Logistics, and opportunity is still in marketplace in High Desert Communities.

Adelanto- Marijuana Cultivation Capital of the County

Hesperia Airport-
Logistics Opportunities- Buildings, and opportunities

BNSF- Looking to build large railroad switching yard in the High Desert. This will be able to help feed trains to as long as 3 miles long. Huge add to logistics divisions.

I-15 corridor, Estimated to be complete shortly, and is relief to the largest bottleneck on the West Coast of goods from the port to the rest of the US. Congestion relief is expected to help bring growth and around the region!

High Desert in need of High Paying jobs. Looking to incentivize business to move to the HD!

Office Panel:
John Bibeau- Cushman Wakefield
Michael G Rademaker- MGR
David Mudge- Lee & Associates

Market is improving, show the space and you will fill it.
Most space in IE are filling up from diverse markets. Niche products like that which MGR owns and manages are 97% full.

Largest tenants, Healthcare, Schools,
Office vacancies. Low was at 27% Available, Current rates are about 15%, improvement yet still room to grow.

Construction is expensive and most growth seems to currently be in building acquisition, and rehab. Spec development is a challenge due to regulation, and costs. Rates need to be $2.35- $2.50 to justify constructing new buildings

Leasing Cycle: last three years feeling of false starts. 1st qtr absorption showing great strength this year. If we can hold for 12 months, growth will be exponential. Popular belief is we are 3/4 to a complete recovery in the commercial markets.

Large Opportunity Markets currently, San Bernardino/ High Desert

Ontario Airport impact will be tremendous, and business and industry demands easy access to air travel for corporate reasons. Industry is dependent around efficiency. Autonomy at the airport and airfares will be a huge driver for the IE looking forward!

Non-Financial Trends in IE: Tightening on the spaces available. Change in how workplaces are setup, and designs on workspace.
"Creative Office Space"
Attracting millennials and the up coming workforces from the beach communities..
Regus "Esque" Workspaces continue to drive trends in commercial space..
Shared Desk Concept. Smaller offices are the way of future?

Where are we on the investment cycle? Consensus: Early on
Expectation: Ceiling looking towards $2.35-.50 a foot.. Current rents about $2.00..

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